The Andrew Bailey Trade and Why it Made Sense for Neither Team

I'm just not sure why this deal was made.

Let's start with the A's. They really couldn't get a better package for Bailey, who teams seemed to be interested in???

I'm not sure what the Red Sox gave up here. I'm not a Josh Reddick fan. He's an outfielder with a career .706 OPS through 143 games. In 184 AAA games he's a .243 hitter. He had good power at AAA, but hasn't shown it in the majors, and going to play in Oakland and their large ballpark sure won't help his power situation.

Then the A's got Miles Head who's a 6'0" corner who hasn't played above high-A ball, and there he only has 63 games in at a .733 OPS. He hit very well in low-A ball this year, and at age 20, has time to develop, but there is so much of a chance from that low in the system that he never even makes the majors.

In Raul Alcantara, the A's got somebody who throws hard. But if you throw hard in the minors and you're still only striking out 6.0/9IP, that's not really good. It means he throws a ball without much movement at all. He just turned 19, so he has a lot of time, but it looks like he'll need a lot of time. He probably doesn't project making the majors until 2016, if he makes it at all.

The Red Sox did a good job of not giving up much for their future. Let's look at the present.

First, Ryan Sweeney. Really, another left-handed bat? What's the point? The guy had a .404 OPS against lefties last season. And his .743 OPS vs. Righties, for a corner outfielder is hardly scary, or worth much when you factor in that Jesse Orosco could still make him look like a poor wiffle ball player. Unless the Red Sox scouting people saw something in his swing they thought they can fix, I just see no point in adding him.

Then we have the headliner in the trade, Andrew Bailey, the 2009 Rookie of the Year. Bailey made the All-Star game each of his first 2 seasons, although has had injuries each of his last two seasons (2010 fitting both categories). In 2011 he pitched 41.2 innings, went 0-4 with a 3.24 ERA. Last season he didn't give up any home runs at home, did give up 2 at Yankee Stadium though. Welcome to the AL East. Righties had just a .529 OPS against him, lefties a .709 OPS. In comparison, righties had a .663 OPS vs. Papelbon, while lefties were a mere .428 against him. Papelbon faced 49% lerfties, Bailey faced 57% lefties (Rivera faced 47% lefties).

Who won this trade? Right now I'd say the Red Sox. I just don't think they gave up much. I think they could easily get equal or better value if they traded Bailey at this point. However, I'm not a big fan of Melancon or Bailey, so right it seems the Yankees have a big advantage in late-game situations between the Yankees and Red Sox.

I'm guessing the Red Sox are moving Bard to the rotation, meaning 8th and 9th innings are Melancon (2.78 NL Central ERA) and Bailey (3.24 AL West ERA) vs. Robertson (1.08 AL East ERA) and Rivera (1.91 AL East ERA).